Urbanists have long prophesied the decline of suburban fringe development and a return to downtown as the nation becomes more populous, more diverse, and more carbon-conscious. A new report by the EPA suggests that this geographic shift is already well underway in many points on the map.
The study, which looked at residential building permits in the nation’s 50 most populous metro regions from 1990 to 2007, offers quantitative evidence that city neighborhoods are making a comeback. More than half of the markets in the study saw a dramatic shift away from exurban greenfield development and an uptick in urban core redevelopment over an 18-year period. In 15 of those markets, the central city more than doubled its share of housing permits, with the most accelerated spikes occurring in the past five years.
“We’ve had anecdotal evidence for a while about successful infill projects, but we were curious to see how they fit into the big picture,” says John Thomas, an EPA policy analyst and author of the report. “The big question was whether those examples added up to a fundamental shift in the geography of residential construction.”
In many parts of the country, the answer is a definitive yes. Inner city redevelopment now accounts for more than half of residential new construction in New York, for example, up from just 15% in the early 1990s. In Los Angeles, the number of housing permits issued for city lots jumped from 19% to 37% during that same time frame. That’s in the context of an analysis that teased out, by jurisdiction, the number of permits issued inside city limits versus those issued in the surrounding suburbs.
And the trend isn’t limited to the coasts. In Chicago, urban core redevelopment now accounts for 40% of all residential building permits in the region, up from 7% in the early 1990s.
Other cities in the study posting notable downtown growth spurts include Miami, Atlanta, Seattle, San Diego, Denver, Portland, Ore., Sacramento, and Milwaukee.
Many planning experts expect this reverse migration to continue as baby boomers and echo boomers--the largest demographic groups on the market--drive housing preferences. Additional factors weighing heavily on the shape and location of housing include increased immigration, smaller households, concerns over energy usage and climate change, and downsized consumer expectations in the wake of the current recession.
“Until recently, every house we were building was for the Waltons, even though traditional nuclear families represented only about 25 percent of the market,” says Ed McMahon, senior resident fellow on sustainable development at the Urban Land Institute. “I think what you’re seeing now is the result of pent-up demand for mixed-use, urban housing near jobs, and transit. The market pendulum is swinging from drivable suburbanism to walkable urbanism.”
AIA chief economist Kermit Baker echoed a similar sentiment when his organization’s design trends survey for the third quarter of 2008 indicated a shift in consumer preferences toward infill housing locations with access to public transit. “As home values have dropped in most markets, buyers are considering which options will have the most resale value,” he said. “Infill locations, with their convenient access to employers, retail, entertainment, and public transit options, are proving to be appealing from both a livability and an investment perspective.”