By Jim Wyss, The Miami Herald

Feb. 27--The South Florida housing market was hit with a New Year hangover in January as home sales posted double-digit declines versus December.

The dip was not unexpected because sales in the first two months of the year have historically been sluggish, but it was a reminder that the road to economic recovery won't be a straight line.

The number of home sales in Miami-Dade fell 30 percent from December to January, as the median sales price for a single-family home slid 10 percent to $183,400, Florida Realtors reported Friday. In Broward, sales were down 37 percent, and the median price dipped 15 percent to $180,000.

Condominium sales in Miami-Dade fell 30 percent in January versus December, as prices slipped 4 percent to $141,700. And in Broward, condo sales were down 18 percent, on a 14 percent price decline, to $69,500.

Still, compared to last year's anemic levels, sales were markedly improved. While single-family home sales inched up 7 percent in Miami and 5 percent in Broward versus January of 2009, condo sales spiked 47 percent in Broward and 42 percent in Miami. "We were in such a dark, black hole, but we are slowly digging our way out of this," said Ron Shuffield, the president of EWM Realtors.

But with foreclosures and short sales accounting for about 60 percent of all sales, and mortgages hard to come by, few are expecting the market to stage a dramatic comeback this year. And there are some who believe the market has yet to find its bottom.

While the prices of homes worth $250,000 or less have likely stabilized, higher priced homes and condos could see an additional 5 to 15 percent price decline this year, as the foreclosure crisis climbs the socio-economic ladder, said real-estate analyst Jack McCabe.

"The bottom of the market is fairly stable," he said. But many higher-end properties were bought with adjustable rate mortgages that are due to reset this year.

"You may be seeing$2 million homes that you can pick up for $750,000," he said. "I don't foresee any real increase in sales or prices for the rest of the year."

While the overall inventory of unsold homes and condos continues to decline, the market's ability to absorb the units also took a hit in January.

According to data provided by EWM Realtors, there were 8,258 homes for sale in Miami-Dade in January. At the current sales rate, it would take 15.1 months to churn through the inventory, up from 9.6 months in December. In Broward there were 6,593 homes for sale, which would take 11 months to absorb -- the slowest rate since April.

Still, versus a year ago, when there was a two-year backlog in some housing categories, the numbers were vastly improved.

The local housing data was in line with national sales figures, which dropped for the second straight month in January to their lowest levels since summer.

The National Association of Realtors said sales fell 7.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.05 million units from a downwardly revised pace of 5.44 million in December. The results were far worse than forecast, as economists expected a slight increase to a rate of 5.5 million.

The median sales price for all homes was $164,700, unchanged from a year earlier and down 3.4 percent from December.

One of the factors suppressing sales in some parts of the country was the unseasonably cold weather that had many would-be buyers snowbound.

"Still, the latest monthly sales decline is not encouraging, and raises concern about the strength of the recovery," said Lawrence Yun, the chief economist of the National Association of Realtors.

The housing news came the same day the Commerce Department bumped up its growth estimate for the final quarter of 2009 from 5.7 percent to 5.9 percent. That's the strongest showing in six years, but most analysts expect growth to slow during the current quarter, which ends in March.

For many local Realtors, Friday's sales figures clashed with what they are seeing on the street. Alicia Cervera Lamadrid, the president of Related Cervera Realty Services, said her office held a party on Wednesday to celebrate having closed on 100 apartments in the last three months at the ICON condo tower in downtown Miami.

"I'm surprised because I think business has been up; we are seeing increased traffic," she said. "We had a fabulous January and February."

But still, many clients who would have been good credit risks just a few years ago are now struggling to get loans.

Stepping back from the month-to-month volatility of the numbers, it's clear the market is on the uptick, said real estate analyst Mike Cannon. According to his calculations, the market bottomed out eight months ago. But banks have been slow to catch on.

"Lenders are always the last to know," he said. "They're the last to know when the [market] is going up and the last to know when it has hit bottom."

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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